Sources – Independent Fed

Source Categories

Our analysis draws on diverse, authoritative sources

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Primary Documents

Legal texts, official statements, archives

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Academic Research

Peer-reviewed studies, working papers

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Press Reporting

Reuters, AP, major financial press

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Economic Data

FRED, IMF, World Bank

Complete Bibliography

Sources for historical narrative and analysis

Primary Documents

Federal Reserve Act (1913, as amended) — Statutory foundation for Fed structure, 14-year terms, and "for cause" removal protections
Treasury–Federal Reserve Accord of 1951 — Agreement restoring monetary independence from Treasury financing requirements
Federal Reserve Board Historical Archives — Speeches, policy statements, meeting minutes, and oral histories
Humphrey's Executor v. United States, 295 U.S. 602 (1935) — Supreme Court precedent on agency independence
Seila Law v. CFPB, 591 U.S. ___ (2020) — Recent narrowing of removal protections for single-director agencies
U.S. Senate Historical Office — Documentation on Fed nominations, confirmations, and legislative history

Academic Research

Alesina, A. & Summers, L. (1993) — "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25(2), 151-162. [Key study showing negative correlation between independence and inflation]
Cukierman, A. (1992) — Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence. MIT Press. [Foundational work on measuring central bank independence]
Cukierman, A., Webb, S. & Neyapti, B. (1992) — "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes." World Bank Economic Review
Garriga, A. (2016, updated 2025) — "Central Bank Independence Dataset." Harvard Dataverse
Bernanke, B. (2013) — The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis. Princeton University Press
Blinder, A. (1998) — Central Banking in Theory and Practice. MIT Press
Barro, R. & Gordon, D. (1983) — "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics

Press Reporting & Analysis

Reuters (2019–2025) — Coverage of presidential pressure on the Fed, Supreme Court challenges, and the DOJ investigation of Jerome Powell
Associated Press (AP) — Contemporaneous reporting on Fed policy decisions and political pressure
Fox Business (2025) — Joint statement by former Fed Chairs and Treasury Secretaries warning of "unprecedented attempt to undermine independence"
Financial Times (2019–2024) — In-depth coverage of Turkey's monetary policy crisis and central bank governor turnover
Wall Street Journal — Coverage of emerging market central bank crises and Fed independence debates
The Economist — Analysis of global central bank independence trends

Institutional Sources

Council on Foreign Relations — Expert analysis on central bank independence and emerging market crises
International Monetary Fund (IMF) — Working papers on Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and emerging market inflation crises
Federal Reserve Bank Research — Staff working papers, economic letters, and historical analysis from regional Fed banks
Brookings Institution — Policy papers on Fed independence and monetary policy
Peterson Institute for International Economics — Analysis of global central banking practices
European Central Bank — Documentation on ECB independence design and treaty protections

Historical Sources

Nixon Presidential Library — Tapes and transcripts documenting Nixon's pressure on Arthur Burns
LBJ Presidential Library — Records of Johnson-Martin confrontation
Federal Reserve History (federalreservehistory.org) — Comprehensive essays on key episodes in Fed history
Silber, W. (2012) — Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence. Bloomsbury Press
Meltzer, A. (2003, 2010) — A History of the Federal Reserve, Volumes 1-2. University of Chicago Press
Irwin, N. (2013) — The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire. Penguin

Economic Data

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — Primary source for US CPI, federal funds rate, Treasury yields, and international inflation data
International Monetary Fund (IMF) — World Economic Outlook database for country-level inflation and interest rate statistics
World Bank — Exchange rates and macroeconomic indicators
OECD — Comparative economic statistics for developed economies
Central Bank Publications — Official policy rate announcements and inflation reports from Turkey, Argentina, India, Hungary, Zimbabwe, Venezuela

Data Catalog

FRED series used in charts, fetched in real-time

Series ID	Description	Frequency	Used In
`CPIAUCSL`	Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (US)	Monthly	US Timeline
`FEDFUNDS`	Federal Funds Effective Rate	Monthly	US Timeline
`DGS10`	10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate	Monthly	US Timeline
`T10YIE`	10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate	Daily	Mechanisms
`T10Y2Y`	10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury Spread	Daily	Mechanisms
`DTWEXBGS`	Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (Broad)	Daily	Mechanisms
`FPCPITOTLZGTUR`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), Turkey	Annual	Global Cases
`INTDSRTRM193N`	Interest Rates: Discount Rate, Turkey	Monthly	Global Cases
`CCUSMA02TRM618N`	Turkish Lira per USD	Monthly	Global Cases
`FPCPITOTLZGARG`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), Argentina	Annual	Global Cases
`FPCPITOTLZGIND`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), India	Annual	Global Cases
`FPCPITOTLZGVEN`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), Venezuela	Annual	Global Cases
`FPCPITOTLZGZWE`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), Zimbabwe	Annual	Global Cases
`FPCPITOTLZGHUN`	Inflation (Annual % CPI), Hungary	Annual	Global Cases

Data is fetched in real-time via the FRED API. Some series are converted to annual frequency for chart clarity. When data is unavailable for a series, the chart displays "Data Unavailable" rather than showing incomplete information.

Methodology Notes

How we approach the evidence

Event vs. Interpretation Separation

We distinguish between events (what happened, when, who did what) and interpretation (the mechanism, what changed in markets, what institutions did next). Event descriptions aim to be factual and verifiable; interpretive claims are supported by academic research and expert analysis.

Severity Scoring Framework

The severity scores shown for each case study are transparent and decomposed across four dimensions: Legal Independence Attacked (0–3), Leadership Turnover (0–3), Policy Divergence from Inflation Targeting (0–3), and Market Stress (0–3). The total score (0–12) provides a standardized comparison across countries. The methodology is explained on the Mechanisms page.

Standardizing Claims to Observables

Claims like "undermining independence increases inflation risk" are mapped to observable data: inflation expectations, actual inflation outcomes, currency depreciation, bond yields, and sovereign spreads. This makes assertions testable rather than merely rhetorical.

Counterfactual Analysis

For each case study, we include an "orthodox response" section explaining what an independent, inflation-targeting central bank would typically do in similar circumstances. This helps illustrate why the political constraint mattered for outcomes.

Data Handling

Economic data is fetched live from FRED to ensure currency. CPI data is converted to year-over-year percentage changes for comparability with interest rates. When FRED data is unavailable for a series (common for countries during hyperinflation periods), charts display "Data Unavailable" rather than omitting the variable or showing partial data.

Technical Notes

How data is fetched and displayed

FRED API

All economic data is fetched directly from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's FRED API through a CORS proxy. This ensures data is always current and comes from the authoritative source for US economic statistics.

Real-Time Updates

Charts are generated dynamically when you load each page. Series data is processed on the client side—we don't store or cache any economic data on our servers.

Open Data

All data sources used on this site are publicly available. You can access the same data directly from FRED, IMF, or World Bank databases using the series IDs listed above.

How to Cite

For academic or professional use

Independent Fed Project. (2026). "Central Bank Independence: Historical and Global Evidence." Retrieved from https://independentfed.org

This is an educational resource. For academic work, please cite the primary sources listed in the bibliography above. When citing specific claims or data, reference the original source (e.g., Alesina & Summers 1993 for the independence-inflation correlation).

Questions or Corrections?

If you find errors in our data, analysis, or sourcing, or if you have suggestions for additional sources to include, please reach out. We aim to maintain the highest standards of accuracy and are committed to correcting any errors.